Weekly Brief - 8/26

Powell @ Jackson Hole, your Weekly Brief!

Hey hey, thanks for checking back in to this weeks’ edition of The Trading Brief! We have another exciting week of earnings coming up!

Listen up traders, this is what we have in store:

NEWS
Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole: The Fed’s Dance with Interest Rates (No Tap Shoes Required)

So, Jerome Powell, the man with the power to make Wall Street break out in a cold sweat, just wrapped up his annual heart-to-heart with the global financial community at Jackson Hole. You know, the place where serious economic talk meets stunning mountain views. Picture a bunch of economists and central bankers trying to look relaxed while secretly panicking about inflation over their morning coffee.

This year, Powell’s speech was like that one teacher who always keeps you guessing—serious, yet just vague enough to keep everyone on their toes. Investors were listening in like kids trying to catch the answers before a big exam, hoping to figure out if the Fed’s going to keep hiking those pesky interest rates.

The Setup: Will They or Won’t They?

First, let’s rewind a bit. The Fed’s been on a rate-hiking spree lately, trying to squash inflation like it’s an annoying fly buzzing around your summer barbecue. They’ve raised rates so many times, it’s starting to feel like they’re doing it just to see if we’re paying attention.

But inflation, like that stubborn fly, hasn’t completely buzzed off yet. So, the big question everyone had for Powell was: “Are we done with the rate hikes, or should we keep our helmets on?”

Powell’s Speech: The Plot Thickens

Powell’s message? Well, it was something like, “We’ve come a long way, but we’re not out of the woods yet. So, we might raise rates again… or maybe we won’t. Depends on how things go.”

Not exactly the clear-cut answer everyone was hoping for, but hey, that’s central banking for you. Powell basically said the Fed is ready to keep playing with rates if inflation doesn’t behave, but they’re also keeping an eye on the economy to avoid accidentally flipping it upside down.

“We’re going to take it slow, see how things shake out,” he said, probably sipping a Jackson Hole latte. “But don’t worry, we’ve got this under control.”

Market Reaction: A Collective Sigh of Relief

The stock market, which has been on a bit of a rollercoaster lately, took a deep breath and relaxed a little after Powell’s speech. It’s like the market heard, “We’re not slamming on the brakes, but we’re not flooring it either,” and thought, “Okay, we can work with that.”

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both perked up, like students who realized the pop quiz isn’t going to be as brutal as they feared. Even the bond market chilled out, with Treasury yields deciding to stay put for a while instead of throwing another tantrum.

Investors seemed to appreciate that Powell wasn’t planning to go full-speed ahead with rate hikes, which could’ve been a buzzkill for the economy. Instead, he’s keeping it cool and playing the long game.

What’s Next: The Waiting Game

Now, just because Powell’s speech was a bit reassuring doesn’t mean we’re in the clear. The economy’s still juggling a lot of things—geopolitical drama, supply chain headaches, and whatever’s going on with the job market. Plus, global issues, like China’s economic situation, are still out there, ready to throw us a curveball.

Powell made it clear that the Fed’s going to keep a close eye on all these factors, adjusting its strategy as needed. “We’ll see what the data says and go from there,” he basically said, which is central banker speak for “Stay tuned, folks.”

So, while Powell didn’t exactly bring out the tap shoes and do a celebratory dance, he did manage to calm some nerves. Investors, for now, can breathe a little easier knowing the Fed’s got a plan, even if that plan is to wait and see.

Wrapping It Up: The Fed’s Slow Dance Continues

In the end, Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was like a slow dance at a middle school prom—cautious, a little awkward, but with a clear intention not to step on anyone’s toes. The Fed’s going to keep doing its thing, but it’s not rushing to the finish line.

For the markets, this means more of the same: watching, waiting, and maybe, just maybe, getting through 2024 without too many surprises. After all, when it comes to interest rates, sometimes slow and steady really does win the race..

EVENTS
Nvidia’s Upcoming Earnings Report: Ready for Another Victory Lap?

Ladies and gentlemen, get your popcorn ready because Nvidia is about to drop its next earnings report this week, Wednesday, August 28 after market close, and it’s sure to be a blockbuster. If you’ve been following the tech world at all, you know that Nvidia is the reigning champ when it comes to AI, gaming, and basically anything that needs a ton of processing power. And now, as earnings season rolls around, all eyes are on them to see if they’ll knock it out of the park once again.

The Build-Up: Nvidia’s Been on a Hot Streak

Nvidia has been riding a wave of success that just keeps growing, kind of like that one friend who somehow wins every game of Mario Kart, even with a broken controller. They’ve been dominating the AI scene, with their GPUs being the go-to for anyone looking to build the next big thing in artificial intelligence. And let’s not forget their impact on gaming, where Nvidia’s tech is powering everything from casual mobile games to the most hardcore virtual reality experiences.

So, as we gear up for this week’s earnings report, the question isn’t really “Will Nvidia do well?” but more like “How ridiculously well will they do this time?”

The Expectations: High, Higher, and Through the Roof

Analysts are expecting big things—again. And why wouldn’t they? Nvidia has been setting new records every quarter like it’s a hobby. Revenue, profits, stock price—you name it, they’ve been smashing it. This time around, the buzz is all about how Nvidia’s AI business is likely to have fueled yet another jaw-dropping performance.

Investors are basically like kids on Christmas Eve, eagerly waiting to see what shiny new numbers Nvidia will deliver. Will there be surprises? Probably. Will those surprises involve even more money flowing into Nvidia’s coffers? Almost certainly.

The Market Anticipation: Get Ready for the Fireworks

As the earnings report approaches, the stock market is on the edge of its seat, ready to react to whatever Nvidia has in store. If past reports are anything to go by, we could see some serious stock price action. After all, Nvidia has a habit of turning even the most jaded traders into excited fans.

It’s like the company’s motto is “Go big or go home,” except Nvidia never seems to go home—they just keep going bigger.

What to Watch: Can They Keep the Streak Alive?

So, what should we be looking out for in this report? Well, aside from the usual insane revenue and profit figures, everyone’s going to be paying close attention to Nvidia’s guidance for the future. The company’s been riding high on AI and gaming, but will they hint at any new ventures or technologies that could take them even further?

And let’s not forget the potential for some CEO banter. Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, is known for being charismatic and a little bit cheeky, so there’s always the possibility of a memorable quote or two. Maybe he’ll even throw in a surprise announcement just to keep things interesting.

Conclusion: Buckle Up for Another Wild Ride

In the end, Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is shaping up to be another exciting chapter in the company’s ongoing success story. Whether you’re an investor, a tech enthusiast, or just someone who likes to watch a good show, this week’s report is one you won’t want to miss.

So, sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride—because when it comes to Nvidia, one thing’s for sure: it’s going to be anything but boring.

EVENTS
Important Data Events - Week 35

🟠 = less important

🔴 = more important

Monday, August 26

4a EST

8:30a EST

🟠German ifo Business Climate

🟠Durable Goods Order

Tuesday, August 27

9a EST

10a EST

9:30p EST

🟠S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI

🔴CB Consumer Confidence

🔴CPI (AUD)

Wednesday, August 28

1:15a EST

10:30a EST

🟠FOMC Member Waller Speaks

🟠Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, August 29

3a EST

8:30a EST

10a EST

12p EST

7:30p EST

9:30p EST

🟠Spanish Flash CPI

🔴Unemployment Claims

🟠Pending Home Sales

🟠SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks (CHF)

🟠Tokyo Core CPI

🟠Retail Sales (AUD)

Friday, August 30

5a EST

8:30a EST

9:45a EST

10a EST

🔴 CPI Estimates (EUR)

🔴 Core PCI Price Index

🟠Chicago PMI

🟠Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

WEEKLY TRADING LEVELS
FUTURES INDICIES

Enjoy this list of levels that have been curated for you! These levels are some major support and resistance levels that have been identified as areas of interest.

Use them to guide your charting, happy trading! ☘️

ES

5720

5705

5670

5618

5605

5590

5575

NQ

20390

20270

20030

19680

19500

19375

19215

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Thank you for tuning in! Feel free to refer your friends if you enjoyed the publication.

Peace out, happy trading! 😝

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