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S&P Worst Week Since 2023: What it Means Moving Forward
Your Weekly Brief - 9/9
Hey y’all, thanks for checking back in with The Trading Brief, where we keep it—well—brief! Follow along for all of the need to knows for this exciting week of trading.
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On the Menu for This Week:
NEWS
The S&P 500 Just Had Its Worst Week Since 2023: Buckle Up for the Rest of 2024!
Well, folks, it happened. The S&P 500 decided to take a nosedive in September 2024, giving us its worst week since—wait for it—2023. Yes, it’s been almost a whole year since we’ve seen a slump like this, so naturally, we’re all totally cool with it and definitely not freaking out. Wall Street is fine. Everything is fine. Except the stock market, the economy, and, you know, the entire concept of financial stability. But other than that, peachy!
So, why did this happen? Let’s break it down with some delightful optimism (or sarcasm, whatever gets you through).
Why Did the Market Tank?
1. Bond Yields: The New Cool Kid in Town
The S&P 500 wasn’t dumped because it’s uncool, but because bond yields have swaggered into the party, catching everyone’s eye. You see, bond yields are like the dependable, responsible choice in a world of flashy, risky stocks. And lately, they’ve been strutting around at their highest levels in over a decade. When bond yields go up, investors flock to them, like choosing to Netflix and chill with a reliable friend instead of going to that wild stock market party. Sorry, S&P, people love stability right now.
2. Inflation: Still Hanging Around Like a Bad Ex
Just when we thought inflation might finally leave us alone, it pops back up like that clingy ex who won’t stop texting. Sure, inflation has calmed down since its heyday in 2022, but it’s still there—whispering sweet nothings into the Fed’s ear about potential rate hikes. And as we all know, nothing says “party killer” like the threat of higher interest rates. The Fed isn’t ready to swipe right on rate cuts just yet, which leaves the market awkwardly waiting for the next move.
3. Economic Data: Mixed Signals Like a Tinder Date
The economy’s giving off major mixed signals right now. Employment numbers are looking solid—hooray! But then there’s slowing growth in manufacturing and services, a dip in consumer confidence, and, well, a general feeling that something might be off. It’s like getting excited for a date only to realize they’re “still figuring things out.” The market doesn’t love uncertainty, and right now, the economy is texting “idk, we’ll see.”
4. Geopolitical Drama: As If We Didn’t Have Enough to Worry About
Just in case inflation and economic wobbles weren’t enough, the world’s drama llama has entered the chat. Between tensions in Ukraine and ongoing trade disputes with China, investors are getting a little twitchy. Global supply chains are once again the hot topic at dinner parties (okay, probably not, but you get the point), and nobody knows exactly how it’s all going to shake out.
What’s Next? Probably More Rollercoasters
So, what does this dumpster fire of a week mean for the rest of 2024? Let’s speculate wildly, shall we?
1. Volatility: It’s Not Going Anywhere
If you like market swings, good news! Volatility is sticking around like that one friend who just can’t leave the party. Every new piece of economic data or Fed speech is going to make the market react faster than you can say “portfolio diversification.” So buckle up; the rest of 2024 might be a bumpy ride.
2. The Fed: Still Holding All the Cards
The Federal Reserve is basically the market’s stern parent right now. Depending on what the Fed says or does, the market will either throw a tantrum or get a little too excited. If inflation chills out and the Fed hints at lowering rates, we could see things calm down. If the Fed decides to keep being strict, expect more market sulking.
3. Earnings: Can Companies Save the Day?
Corporate earnings might be the market’s last hope for 2024. But with higher borrowing costs, inflation, and consumers tightening their wallets, it’s like asking your cat to do your taxes—possible but unlikely to end well. If companies surprise us with solid earnings, though, we could see a little light at the end of this very turbulent tunnel. If not, well, back to the panic button.
4. Sectors: Pick Your Poison
Some sectors are probably going to handle this better than others. If you’re into thrills, tech stocks and financials might be your jam—just be ready for some turbulence. If you want to play it safe, defensive sectors like healthcare or utilities might be the stock equivalent of a cozy blanket. Your call!
5. Recession: Is It Coming or What?
There’s a growing buzz that the economy might flirt with a recession later this year or early next year. If that happens, the market could take another beating. But hey, if it’s mild, maybe it’ll be more of a light slap than a knockout punch. At this point, we’re all hoping for the best, preparing for the worst, and mostly just wondering when we can all take a nap.
Conclusion: Don’t Panic (Maybe)
The S&P 500 may have just had its worst week since 2023, but hey, who’s counting? If you can survive this, you can probably survive whatever 2024 has left to throw at you. Whether the market recovers or continues to act like it’s on a caffeine-fueled rollercoaster, we’re in for a wild ride. So hang on tight, keep an eye on the Fed, and try not to refresh your portfolio every five minutes. You’ve got this—probably.
EVENTS
Important Data Events - Week 37
🟠 = less important
🔴 = more important
Tuesday, September 10
2a EST 8:10a EST | 🔴Claimant Count (GBP) 🔴BOC Gov Macklem Speaks |
Wednesday, September 11
2a EST 8:30a EST 10:30a EST | 🔴GDP (GBP) 🔴CPI 🟠Crude Oil Inventories |
Thursday, September 12
8:15a EST 8:30a EST 8:45a EST 1:01p EST | 🔴Monetary Policy Statement (EUR) 🔴Core PPI 🔴ECB Press Conference 🟠30-y Bond Auction |
Friday, September 13
10:00a EST | 🟠UoM Consumer Sentiment Data |
WEEKLY TRADING LEVELS
FUTURES INDICIES
Enjoy this list of levels that have been curated for you! These levels are some major support and resistance levels that have been identified as areas of interest.
Use them to guide your charting, happy trading! ☘️
ES 5720 5669 5557 5522 5439 5348 5243 5183 | NQ 19693 19116 18929 18649 18525 18422 17905 17755 |
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Peace out, happy trading! 😝
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