Hey traders! Good morning, and welcome back to The Trading Brief for week 41 of 2024!

Your Brief:

1. Stock Market Returns: Democrat v Republican

2. Important Data Events

3. Trading Levels

4. Trader Resource Center

   1. Prop Firm Deals

NEWS
🎯 Red vs. Blue: The Tug-of-War for Your Portfolio 💼💰

Ah, the stock market. The grand stage where fortunes are made, dreams are shattered, and the line between investor genius and utter insanity becomes delightfully blurry. If you’ve ever had the pleasure of watching the nightly news, you’ll know that whenever a Democrat sneezes or a Republican frowns, someone on Wall Street gets nervous. But one of the age-old debates that haunts investors’ minds—right alongside "Is crypto going to zero?" and "Did I really need that third cup of coffee?"—is the question: Who’s better for my portfolio? Democrats or Republicans?

Let's dive in, shall we?

The Red Market

Republicans, known for their love of free markets, low taxes, and giving CEOs the warm fuzzies, have long been seen as the stock market’s best friend. According to the stereotype, whenever a Republican sets foot in the Oval Office, Wall Street pops champagne, the stock market soars to the heavens, and every portfolio is bathed in golden returns.

Except... well, reality has a funny way of disagreeing with that narrative.

When we look at the numbers (yes, those pesky things), the average stock market return under Republican presidents isn’t always the firework display their supporters might expect. Sure, we’ve had bull markets under GOP leadership—Reaganomics gave the market quite the sugar rush, and we all know how Trump liked to brag about his yuge stock market gains. But throw in a couple of oil crises, wars, and the occasional financial meltdown, and the overall picture gets a little, shall we say, murky?

The Blue Market

Now, enter the Democrats. The "tax-and-spend" party that’s supposedly here to crush your dreams with regulation, high taxes, and free healthcare for squirrels. Surely, the stock market can’t possibly thrive under such conditions, right?

Wrong.

Historically, the stock market has been surprisingly chipper with a Democrat in the White House. Go figure. Whether it’s FDR pulling the nation out of the Great Depression, Bill Clinton presiding over a tech boom, or Barack Obama guiding the market from the depths of the 2008 financial crisis to new highs, the market has a curious way of defying expectations. It’s almost as if corporate profits can still exist in a world where regulations and taxes don’t lead to immediate economic collapse.

So, Who Wins the Tug-of-War?

If you’re here for a clear, definitive answer on whether Republican or Democratic presidents are better for your portfolio, congratulations! You’re about to be disappointed.

The average stock market return during Democratic presidencies has historically been higher than under Republicans. That’s right. The stock market—a wild beast that theoretically should prefer laissez-faire capitalism—has, on average, performed better with Democrats in charge. I know, it’s shocking, like finding out that your favorite Netflix show got canceled right before the season finale.

Now, before you fire off angry emails or pop champagne in celebration, let’s remember a few things. First, presidents don’t control the stock market. Repeat after me: Presidents don’t control the stock market. They like to take credit for it when it’s up and point fingers when it’s down, but there are so many factors at play that attributing the market’s success or failure to a single person is like blaming your internet outage on the neighbor’s cat. Possible, but not likely.

Wars, interest rates, inflation, global trade, technological advances, and a million other factors all influence the market’s behavior. Presidents just happen to be in the driver’s seat, hoping they don’t hit a pothole on their way to the next economic summit.

The Bottom Line

If you’re trying to decide whether to back the stock market based on who’s in the White House, stop. Seriously, stop. Historically, the market has shown resilience and growth under both parties, and while Democratic presidents might have a slight edge in average returns, both sides have had their wins and losses.

In the end, the stock market is like a cranky toddler—it’ll do whatever it wants, regardless of who’s telling it "no." So, whether you’re a red-blooded Republican or a blue-loving Democrat, just remember: Your portfolio doesn’t care who’s president. It’s more concerned with whether you bought GameStop at $500.

Moral of the story: Presidents come and go, but market volatility is forever. So, buckle up, hold on tight, and maybe, just maybe, don’t base your investment strategy on political party lines. After all, the stock market is the ultimate bipartisan thrill ride!

EVENTS
Important Data Events - Week 41

🟠 = less important

🔴 = more important

Monday, October 7

Tuesday, October 8

Wednesday, October 9

Thursday, October 10

Friday, October 11

WEEKLY TRADING LEVELS
FUTURES INDICIES

Enjoy this list of levels that have been curated for you! These levels are some major support and resistance levels that have been identified as areas of interest.

Use them to guide your charting, happy trading! ☘️

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