Hey there and welcome back to The Trading Brief, we have a jam packed week coming up with the US Presidential Election on Tuesday and FOMC data on Wednesday! But don’t worry … We got your back!

Without further adieu, here is you brief!

Table of Contents

1. Market Brief

2. Important Data Events

3. Trading Levels

4. Trader Resource Center

   1. Prop Firm Deals

NEWS
👀 All Eyes on the Market: The Ultimate 📈 Stock Market Reality Show 🎬 This Week! 🗳️🏦

It’s a big week in the stock market arena, folks! We’ve got all the thrills, drama, and suspense of reality TV, minus the roses and the tears (well, there might be some of those, too). With the upcoming presidential election and an FOMC meeting, traders are bracing themselves for a rollercoaster ride as they prepare for two of the market’s favorite plot twists. It’s a week where everyone’s a critic, and the stakes are high – so grab your popcorn and hold on tight.

Let’s dive into the numbers, the tension, and a dash of humor to keep things light. Who said finance couldn’t be fun?

The Big, Bold Presidential Election

First things first, let’s talk election. This Tuesday, we’ll be witnessing America’s finest tradition of democracy, a process that, let’s be real, is as predictable as a reality show season finale. Historically, markets tend to get a bit… jittery ahead of big elections. Traders want to know who’s going to be driving the country’s economic policy for the next four years, and the unknowns can send the market into a bit of a tizzy.

Interesting fact: According to past data, the S&P 500 has typically seen an uptick in the weeks after the election, as uncertainty fades and markets get back to business. However, in election years where an incumbent faces off against a challenger, there’s usually some volatility leading up to the big reveal.

Market in Numbers:

- S&P 500 Performance: Historically, the S&P 500 has returned around 10% on average in presidential election years, though that number fluctuates wildly depending on the outcome.

- Sector Watch: Financials and healthcare are the typical “swing sectors” in an election year, with investors looking for clues about potential regulatory changes.

With polling data and election chatter filling every corner of the media, expect to see some bold moves in the market as investors place their bets on likely sector winners (hint: keep an eye on green energy stocks if certain candidates gain momentum) and losers. And remember, just like reality TV contestants, sometimes stocks that look strong on paper have a “shocking elimination” after the final votes come in.

…Switching gears…

FOMC Meeting: The Fed’s Version of “Deal or No Deal”

Just when you thought the week couldn’t get any more exciting, enter the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), who will be making a big decision about interest rates. The Fed’s relationship with rates is like your friend who’s “just seeing how it goes” – they’ve been cautiously holding rates steady, but all eyes are on them to see if they’ll make a surprise move. Spoiler alert: most analysts aren’t expecting much action, but we could see some “Fed speak” that shakes things up.

The Fed has been juggling high inflation and economic growth concerns, and markets are a bit like fans waiting for their favorite contestant’s fate: will they hike, cut, or keep rates as they are? While most bets are on a no-change scenario, there’s always room for the unexpected – or in Fed speak, a “data-dependent pivot.”

FOMC Data Watch:

- Current Interest Rate: Sitting at 5.25% - 5.50%, the Fed’s been keeping a lid on the punch bowl for a while now.

- Inflation Insight: The Core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, came in at 3.7% last month. This number has steadily declined from last year’s highs but is still above the Fed’s 2% target.

If the Fed even hints at a potential rate cut, expect some high-flying moves from tech stocks – think of them as the “divas” of the stock market, always ready to steal the spotlight when rates go down. Financials, on the other hand, might be bracing for a change if the Fed decides to take a different tone.

What Could Go Wrong? “Markets Are Like Cats... Unpredictable”

Let’s not forget that, much like a cat that seems to be settling down only to suddenly sprint through the house, markets can go haywire at any moment, especially in weeks like these. One major wildcard is market volatility, which, like a stressed-out game show contestant, can either hit new highs or simmer down, depending on how these events unfold.

Historically, the VIX Index, or “fear gauge,” tends to tick higher in the days leading up to elections and major Fed announcements. It’s like the suspense music in a reality show crescendoing just before the big reveal – and this week, it’s hitting new highs.

Current data points to the VIX hovering around 18, with some analysts expecting it to break 20 if markets get particularly spooked. But take it with a pinch of salt – as the markets have taught us time and time again, there are no guarantees.

The Bottom Line: Get Ready for a Wild Ride

In a week packed with an election and an FOMC meeting, all bets are off. Investors will be watching sectors, interest rates, and policy implications like hawks – and don’t be surprised if volatility levels get a bit dramatic. Whether you’re bullish or bearish, keep in mind the sage advice of seasoned investors: “Buy the rumor, sell the news,” and maybe keep a little cash on hand, just in case.

So, stay tuned, stay sharp, and don’t be surprised if this week’s market storylines have a few twists and turns. After all, the stock market might just be the world’s longest-running reality show – and you’re here for the season finale!

Beyond the earnings frenzy, the Fed’s recent moves and upcoming labor market data will still hover in the background, shaping the market’s mood. A few more strong reports might convince traders that the long-feared recession is still just a mirage. But if earnings underwhelm, expect renewed chatter about the Fed needing to "save us all" with even more rate cuts.

Final Thoughts: Enjoy the Ride (But Don’t Forget the Seatbelt)

This week’s earnings are like that moment on a rollercoaster where you’re just about to crest the top: thrilling, terrifying, and entirely unpredictable. Whether you’re an old pro or just trying to grow your portfolio, these reports will have something for everyone—just be ready for the ride.

EVENTS
Important Data Events - Week 45

🟠 = less important

🔴 = more important

Monday, November 4

Tuesday, November 5

Wednesday, November 6

Thursday, November 7

Friday, November 8

WEEKLY TRADING LEVELS
FUTURES INDICIES

Enjoy this list of levels that have been curated for you! These levels are some major support and resistance levels that have been identified as areas of interest.

Use them to guide your charting, happy trading! ☘️

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